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Speleology in Kazakhstan

Shakalov on 04 Jul, 2018
Hello everyone!   I pleased to invite you to the official site of Central Asian Karstic-Speleological commission ("Kaspeko")   There, we regularly publish reports about our expeditions, articles and reports on speleotopics, lecture course for instructors, photos etc. ...

Speleology in Kazakhstan

Shakalov on 04 Jul, 2018
Hello everyone!   I pleased to invite you to the official site of Central Asian Karstic-Speleological commission ("Kaspeko")   There, we regularly publish reports about our expeditions, articles and reports on speleotopics, lecture course for instructors, photos etc. ...

Speleology in Kazakhstan

Shakalov on 11 Jul, 2012
Hello everyone!   I pleased to invite you to the official site of Central Asian Karstic-Speleological commission ("Kaspeko")   There, we regularly publish reports about our expeditions, articles and reports on speleotopics, lecture course for instructors, photos etc. ...

New publications on hypogene speleogenesis

Klimchouk on 26 Mar, 2012
Dear Colleagues, This is to draw your attention to several recent publications added to KarstBase, relevant to hypogenic karst/speleogenesis: Corrosion of limestone tablets in sulfidic ground-water: measurements and speleogenetic implications Galdenzi,

The deepest terrestrial animal

Klimchouk on 23 Feb, 2012
A recent publication of Spanish researchers describes the biology of Krubera Cave, including the deepest terrestrial animal ever found: Jordana, Rafael; Baquero, Enrique; Reboleira, Sofía and Sendra, Alberto. ...

Caves - landscapes without light

akop on 05 Feb, 2012
Exhibition dedicated to caves is taking place in the Vienna Natural History Museum   The exhibition at the Natural History Museum presents the surprising variety of caves and cave formations such as stalactites and various crystals. ...

Did you know?

That carbide, calcium carbide is a compound (cac2) of grayish color that reacts with water to produce acetylene gas and calcium hydroxide [ca(oh)2] [13]. commonly used by cavers and miners earlier in this century as a means of providing light in caves or mines. some cavers still prefer carbide lights over electric lights. see also carbide lamp.?

Checkout all 2699 terms in the KarstBase Glossary of Karst and Cave Terms

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KarstBase a bibliography database in karst and cave science.

Featured articles from Cave & Karst Science Journals
Chemistry and Karst, White, William B.
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Featured articles from other Geoscience Journals
Karst environment, Culver D.C.
Mushroom Speleothems: Stromatolites That Formed in the Absence of Phototrophs, Bontognali, Tomaso R.R.; D’Angeli Ilenia M.; Tisato, Nicola; Vasconcelos, Crisogono; Bernasconi, Stefano M.; Gonzales, Esteban R. G.; De Waele, Jo
Calculating flux to predict future cave radon concentrations, Rowberry, Matt; Marti, Xavi; Frontera, Carlos; Van De Wiel, Marco; Briestensky, Milos
Microbial mediation of complex subterranean mineral structures, Tirato, Nicola; Torriano, Stefano F.F;, Monteux, Sylvain; Sauro, Francesco; De Waele, Jo; Lavagna, Maria Luisa; D’Angeli, Ilenia Maria; Chailloux, Daniel; Renda, Michel; Eglinton, Timothy I.; Bontognali, Tomaso Renzo Rezio
Evidence of a plate-wide tectonic pressure pulse provided by extensometric monitoring in the Balkan Mountains (Bulgaria), Briestensky, Milos; Rowberry, Matt; Stemberk, Josef; Stefanov, Petar; Vozar, Jozef; Sebela, Stanka; Petro, Lubomir; Bella, Pavel; Gaal, Ludovit; Ormukov, Cholponbek;
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Your search for time series (Keyword) returned 60 results for the whole karstbase:
Showing 16 to 30 of 60
Rainfall-runoff relations for karstic springs: multifractal analyses, 2002, Labat D. , Mangin A. , Ababou R. ,
Karstic watersheds appear as highly as non-linear and non-stationary systems. The behaviour of karstic springs has been previously studied using non-linear simulation methods (Volterra expansion) and non-stationary analyses methods based on wavelet transforms. The main issue of karstic spring behaviour consists of the presence and the identification of characteristic time-scales. In order to highlight more precisely the scale-properties of the rainfall-runoff relations for karstic springs, the multifractal analysis is introduced. These methods are applied daily and half-hourly rainfall rates and runoffs measured on a three French karstic springs located in the Pyrenees Mountains (Ariege, France): Aliou, Baget and Fontestorbes. They are characterised by a variable development of the drainage systems. We have at our disposal long and uninterrupted series of data over period of several years, which constitute a high quality bank data. Multifractal analyses of both daily and half-hourly rainfall rates and runoffs give evident a scale-dependant behaviour. Effectively, it highlights the presence of different multifractal processes at each sampling rate. Using a universal class of multifractal models based on cascade multiplicative processes, the identified multifractal sub-processes are characterised by the classical parameters alpha and C-1. All these results should lead to several improvements in karstic springflow simulation models. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved

Transfer of bacteria-contaminated particles in a karst aquifer: evolution of contaminated materials from a sinkhole to a spring, 2003, Dussartbaptista L, Massei N, Dupont Jp, Jouenne T,
The transport of particle-associated bacteria during rain events in karst waters has been investigated. In this aim, we studied the correlations between water turbidity and enumerations of sessile (attached) and planktonic (non-attached) bacteria. We monitored physicochemical, i.e. turbidity, electrical conductivity, size and nature of the transported particles, and bacteriological properties of waters since their infiltration on a karst plateau to their discharge at a karstic spring. Results showed a decrease of the concentration of sessile bacteria at the sinkhole for high turbidities. This phenomenon might be explained by the arrival of lower contaminated material. On the other hand, the amount of sessile bacteria at the spring was not influenced by the turbidity values. These data demonstrated that slightly contaminated larger particles were not recovered, whereas small-size particles, which exhibited a higher bacterial contamination, were directly transferred (i.e. not affected by intra-karstic deposition) through the aquifer. Our study highlighted some significant differences between the bacteriological time series at the sinkhole and at the spring, which characterizes the storage/resuspension function of the considered karst system. Moreover, we show a decrease of the concentration of planktonic bacteria after transport through the system whereas no reduction of the sessile population occur-red. The present data confirm that turbidity does not constitute a good indicator for bacterial contamination: if high turbidity corresponds to high bacterial contamination, low turbidity does not systematically exclude a risk of contamination by sessile organisms. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Composite transfer functions for karst aquifers, 2003, Icjukic V. , Jukic D. ,
Linear transfer functions have been extensively used in hydrological studies. Generally, we support this conclusion: rainfall-runoff models based on the convolution between rainfall rates and a nonparametric transfer function (NTF) are not successful at simulating karst spring discharges during long recession periods. The tails of identified transfer functions have irregular shapes and they are not accurate physical representation of the transport through a karst system. Irregularities are the result of unavoidable errors in input and output time series and simplifications made by considering the system as linear and time invariant. This paper deals with a new form of the transfer functions for karst aquifers, the so-called composite transfer function (CTF). The CTF simulates discharges by two transfer functions adapted for the quick flow and the slow flow hydrograph component modeling. NTF is responsible for the quick flow component. The slow flow component is modeled by a parametric transfer function that is an instantaneous unit hydrograph mathematically formulated and defined from a conceptual model. By using the CTF, the irregular shape of the tail of the identified transfer function can be avoided, and the simulation of long recession periods as well as the simulation of a complete hydrograph becomes more successful. The NTF, the Nash model, the Zoch model and other similar conceptual models can be considered separately as simplified forms of the CTF. The rainfall-runoff model based on the convolution between rainfall rates and the CTF was tested on the Jadro Spring in Croatia. The results of the application are compared with the results obtained by applying NTFs independently. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved

A frequency domain approach to groundwater recharge estimation in karst, 2004, Jukic D. , Icjukic V. ,
This paper presents an alternative method for determining the values of parameters of a groundwater recharge model. The phreatic zone of a karst aquifer is considered as the linear and time-invariant filter that transforms the input signal of groundwater recharge rates into the output signal of spring discharges. Similarities between transfer functions of total rainfall rates and transfer functions of groundwater recharge rates are the basis for developing the parametric periodogram depending on parameters of a groundwater recharge model. The values of parameters are estimated by minimizing the differences between the parametric periodogram and a periodogram of spring discharges. The approximate Whittle log likelihood function is the criterion for determining the optimal values of the parameters. By using this frequency domain approach, groundwater-balance calculations are avoided so the method can be applied on unexplored karst aquifers when groundwater-balance cannot be achieved without extensive geologic and hydrogeologic investigations. The results of the applications on two springs located in the Dinaric karst area in Croatia are discussed. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Linear model describing three components of flow in karst aquifers using O-18 data, 2004, Long A. J. , Putnam L. D. ,
The stable isotope of oxygen, 180, is used as a naturally occurring ground-water tracer. Time-series data for 5 180 are analyzed to model the distinct responses and relative proportions of the conduit, intermediate, and diffuse flow components in karst aquifers. This analysis also describes mathematically the dynamics of the transient fluid interchange between conduits and diffusive networks. Conduit and intermediate flow are described by linear-systems methods, whereas diffuse flow is described by mass-balance methods. An automated optimization process estimates parameters of lognormal, Pearson type III, and gamma distributions, which are used as transfer functions in linear-systems analysis. Diffuse flow and mixing parameters also are estimated by these optimization methods. Results indicate the relative proximity of a well to a main conduit flowpath and can help to predict the movement and residence times of potential contaminants. The three-component linear model is applied to five wells, which respond to changes in the isotopic composition of point recharge water from a sinking stream in the Madison aquifer in the Black Hills of South Dakota. Flow velocities as much as 540 m/d and system memories of as much as 71 years are estimated by this method. Also, the mean, median, and standard deviation of traveltimes; time to peak response; and the relative fraction of flow for each of the three components are determined for these wells. This analysis infers that flow may branch apart and rejoin as a result of an anastomotic (or channeled) karst network. Published by Elsevier B.V

Runoff generation in karst catchments: multifractal analysis, 2004, Majone B. , Bellin A. , Borsato A. ,
Time series of hydrological and geochemical signals at two karst springs, located in the Dolomiti del Brenta region, near Trento, Italy, are used to infer how karst catchments work internally to generate runoff. The data analyzed include precipitation, spring flow and electric conductivity of the spring water. All the signals show the signature of multifractality but with different intermittency and non-stationarity. In particular, precipitation and spring flow are shown to have nearly the same degree of nonstationarity and intermittency, while electric conductivity, which mimics the travel time distribution of water in the karst system, is less intermittent and smoother than both spring flow and precipitations. We found that spring flow can be obtained from precipitation through fractional convolution with a power law transfer function. An important result of our study is that the probability distribution of travel times is inconsistent with the advection dispersion equation, while it supports the anomalous transport model. This result is in line with what was observed by Painter et al. [Geophys. Res. Lett. 29 (2002) 21.1] for transport in fractured rocks. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Lithuanian karst region rivers' water ecology: hydrochemical and hydrobiological evaluation, 2004, Tumas R. ,
The Lithuanian karst region covers about 1000 km(3) in the northern part of the country. This is the most vulnerable area from a pollution point of view. The structure of the total dissolved solids (TDS) shows that the flow of rivers in the karst region is from hydraulically interconnected aquifers. For the last decade (1991-2000) TDS has varied considerably, from 529 to 732 mg/l. The predominant sources of nitrogen and phosphorus within the headwaters of the monitored rivers were diffuse and agricultural in nature. Downstream from the towns nitrogen and especially phosphorus showed both diffuse and point source signals. Contributions of point sources to the stream pollution by nutrients prevail. The time series of monthly dissolved oxygen (O-2) in the main karst region river - the Musa - shows the existence of multiplicative seasonality. The trend cycle (1991-1999) shows low levels of dissolved oxygen in 1991-1993, with a similar fluctuation in 1994, 1995 and 1996 (due to point pollution from the town of Siauliai) and a gradually improving situation since 1997. The general multiplicative trend of dissolved oxygen in the lower reaches of the Musa river (near the border with Latvia) is decreasing (within the accuracy limits). The abundance and species of zoo benthos are suitable criteria (biotic index - 131) for evaluation of a river's biological water quality. Zoo benthos demonstrates tolerances that vary among species, the oxygen regime and the pollution with nitrogen. The best living conditions for invertebrates are in the riverhead of the karst region rivers - 131 = 5.62-6.74 (1991-1999), where pollution with nutrients is caused mostly by agricultural activity. Rare and asynchronous data of biological water quality shows up tendencies that invertebrates prefer less contaminated reaches of rivers

Water quality modelling of Jadro spring, 2004, Margeta J. , Fistanic I. ,
Management of water quality in karst is a specific problem. Water generally moves very fast by infiltration processes but far more by concentrated flows through fissures and openings in karst. This enables the entire surface pollution to be transferred fast and without filtration into groundwater springs. A typical example is the Jadro spring. Changes in water quality at the spring are sudden, but short. Turbidity as a major water quality problem for the karst springs regularly exceeds allowable standards. Former practice in problem solving has been reduced to intensive water disinfection in periods of great turbidity without analyses of disinfection by-products risks for water users. The main prerequisite for water quality control and an optimization of water disinfection is the knowledge of raw water quality and nature of occurrence. The analysis of monitoring data and their functional relationship with hydrological parameters enables establishment of a stochastic model that will help obtain better information on turbidity in different periods of the year. Using the model a great number of average monthly and extreme daily values are generated. By statistical analyses of these data possibility of occurrence of high turbidity in certain months is obtained. This information can be used for designing expert system for water quality management of karst springs. Thus, the time series model becomes a valuable tool in management of drinking water quality of the Jadro spring

Investigation of the groundwater residence time distribution in the Aladag (Kayseri-Adana, Turkey) karstic aquifer. PhD Thesis, 2004, Ozyurt, N. Nur

The Aladað karstic aquifer of Eastern Taurids Range extends between 400m and 3750m elevations and, covers an area of 1900 km2 within Adana-Kayseri-Niðde provinces. The study covers the Kapuzbaþý, Göksu shallow circulation and Yerköprü 1, Yerköprü 2 and Yerköprü 3 deep circulation springs that extend from recharge area to the Zamanti river.
The system is fed by precipitation of Mediterranean origin and total precipitation input, evapo-transpiration, net recharge and its volumetric equivalent are found to be 1113 mm, 451 mm, 879 mm and 939 106 m3. Mean annual discharges of Yerköprü 3, Yerköprü 1 and 2, Göksu and, Kapuzbaþý and Barazama springs are 449 106 m3, 82 106 m3, 299 106 m3 and 146 106 m3. Noble gas ( 20Ne, 40Ar, 84Kr) and 18O isotopes suggest recharge area elevation and temperature ranges of 1700-2100m and 2-6 oC. The helium (He) content of groundwater increases with increasing circulation depth. Year round biweekly-monthly samples’ electrical conductivity, tritium ( 3H) and 18O content reveal that Kapuzbaþý and Göksu springs and, Yerköprü 1 and Yerköprü 2 springs behave similarly among themselves.
The “CFC model ages” of the springs where, chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) contents increased from 1997 to 2002, range between 10 to 20 years and 20 to 30 years in the shallow and deep circulation parts, respectively. The 3H/3He* absolute age of groundwater from springs is around 20 +/- 2.5 years. In the computer code LUMPEDUS that was developed for unsteady state lumped parameter modeling applications, 3H, tritiogenic helium-3 ( 3He*), CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and 18O were used as environmental tracers. Serially connected plug-exponential flow model applied to all springs. All models were calibrated for observed outflux and their forecasted 3H, 3He* and 18O time series were found to be in good agreement with the observations. Mean residence times found by models are in agreement with 3H/3He* ages. According to residence time distribution suggested by models, most of the discharges comprise recharges that occurred within last 20 to 30 years. Sixty per cent of discharge comprises recharges of the last 3 to 4 years. The active reservoir volumes of Yerköprü 1-2, Kapuzbaþý, Göksu and Yerköprü 3 springs are found to be 1604 106 m3, 2808 106 m3, 5728 106 m3 and 8609 106 m3 , respectively. According to well established linear relationship between reservoir volumes and discharge elevations, an active volume increases 50 106 m3 per 1m decrease in elevation. Cumulative active reservoir volume is found to be 18749 106 m3 at 450 m elevation where Yerköprü 3 spring is located. Uppermost elevation of active reservoir is located at 836m. Groundwater’s velocity ranges from 2.09 m/day to 5.57 m/day and the corresponding hydraulic conductivities for different reservoirs are between 41.8 m/day and 212.2 m/day. The ordering of hydraulic conductivity among springs ( > > > ) seems to be related to their time of formation. Based on an assumption of 1500m of maximum hydraulic head at the recharge area, the effective porosity of the system is estimated to be 0.86 per cent.

Study of cavernous underground conduits in Nam La (Northwest Vietnam) by an integrative approach, 2005, Tam V. T. , De Smedt F. , Batelaan O. , Hung L. Q. , Dassargues A. ,
This paper presents the result of an investigation of underground conduits, which connect the swallow holes and the resurgence of a blind river in the tropical, highly karstified limestone Nam La catchment in the NW of Vietnam. The Nam La River disappears underground in several swallow holes near the outlet of the catchment. In the rainy season this results in flooding upstream of the sinkholes. A hypothesis is that the Nam La River resurges at a large cavern spring 4.5 km east of the catchment outlet. A multi-thematic study of the possible connections between the swallow holes and the resurgence was carried out to investigate the geological structure, tectonics, cave structure analysis and discharge time series. The existence of the underground conduits was also tested and proven by tracer experiments. On the basis of a lineament analysis the location of the underground conduits were predicted. A remote sensing derived lineament-length density map was used to track routes from the swallow holes to the resurgence, having the shortest length but highest lineament density. This resulted in a plan-view prediction of underground conduits that matches with the cave and fault development. The functioning of the conduits was further explained by analysing flooding records of a nearby doline, which turns out to act as a temporary storage reservoir mitigating flooding of the catchment outlet area

Influence of hydrological and climatic parameters on spatial-temporal variability of fluorescence intensity and DOC of karst percolation waters in the Santana Cave System, Southeastern Brazil, 2005, Cruz J, Karmann I, Magdaleno Gb, Coichev N, Viana J,
Fluorescence intensity (FI) and organic carbon concentration of groundwater percolating through soil and rock into the Santana Cave were monitored at eight different cave sites between 2000 and 2002 to investigate their relationships to climatic parameters, stalactite discharge and thickness of rock overlying the cave. FI values, compared among sampling sites, are inversely proportional to depth and directly proportional to discharge; in contrast, dissolved organic matter (DOC) shows no significant spatial variability. Time-series analysis demonstrated similarities in DOC trends of different waters, but no correlation was observed with FI trends. Combined evaluation of DOC of infiltration waters, rainfall data and chemical parameters of Fe, O2, pH, Eh in soil solution indicate that peaks in DOC content coincide with more reduced conditions in the soil and have a lag time of 2-3 months after heavy showers. Variation of FI throughout the year occurs at all sampling sites but only higher drip discharge and rimstone pool waters were correlatable to rainfall events. FI of lower discharge sampling sites shows similar trends, but no relationship between drip discharge and rainfall variation was observed. Ranges and means of FI for all drip waters were significantly higher in the 2001-2002 period than in the preceding 2000-2001 period, which correlates with a 5.5 [deg]C increase in mean austral winter temperatures in 2001. Hence, FI variations of karst waters that form carbonate speleothems under a humid subtropical climate may provide a useful proxy in paleoenvironmental reconstruction

Flow system dynamics and water storage of a fissured-porous karst aquifer characterized by artificial and environmental tracers, 2005, Einsiedl F,
Concentration breakthrough curves obtained from a tracer test and time series of environmental tracers were analyzed to characterize slow and preferential water flow in a karst aquifer of the Franconian Alb, Germany. Tritium (H-3) and chemical tracers (uranine, bromide, strontium) were measured during low flow conditions and a storm runoff event. The mean transit time of water along the conduits was determined using bromide. Environmental tracer data collected between 1969 and 2003 were modeled to estimate the mean transit time of H-3 in the fissured-porous karst system (diffuse flow). The modelling approach was also used to estimate the water volume of the karst system and the conduits. The results suggest that the total water volume in the fissured-porous karst aquifer is in the range of 57 X 10(6) m(3) and approximately 6% of the total water volume is stored in the soil zone and the epikarst. The water storage capacity of the conduits seems to be of minor importance. A mean transit time of bromide in the range of 14 h was calculated for the conduit flow. The fissures and the porous rock matrix have a calculated water saturated porosity of 5.5% and a mean transit time of approximately 62 years was calculated. Thus the porous rock matrix represents the major dilution and storage zone for pollutants in the karst system. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Spatial and temporal changes in the structure of groundwater nitrate concentration time series (1935-1999) as demonstrated by autoregressive modelling, 2005, Jones A. L. , Smart P. L. ,
Autoregressive modelling is used to investigate the internal structure of long-term (1935-1999) records of nitrate concentration for five karst springs in the Mendip Hills. There is a significant short term (1-2 months) positive autocorrelation at three of the five springs due to the availability of sufficient nitrate within the soil store to maintain concentrations in winter recharge for several months. The absence of short term (1-2 months) positive autocorrelation in the other two springs is due to the marked contrast in land use between the limestone and swallet parts of the catchment, rapid concentrated recharge from the latter causing short term switching in the dominant water source at the spring and thus fluctuating nitrate concentrations. Significant negative autocorrelation is evident at lags varying from 4 to 7 months through to 14-22 months for individual springs, with positive autocorrelation at 19-20 months at one site. This variable timing is explained by moderation of the exhaustion effect in the soil by groundwater storage, which gives longer residence times in large catchments and those with a dominance of diffuse flow. The lags derived from autoregressive modelling may therefore provide an indication of average groundwater residence times. Significant differences in the structure of the autocorrelation function for successive 10-year periods are evident at Cheddar Spring, and are explained by the effect the ploughing up of grasslands during the Second World War and increased fertiliser usage on available nitrogen in the soil store. This effect is moderated by the influence of summer temperatures on rates of mineralization, and of both summer and winter rainfall on the timing and magnitude of nitrate leaching. The pattern of nitrate leaching also appears to have been perturbed by the 1976 drought. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Application of spectral analysis of daily water level and spring discharge hydrographs data for comparing physical characteristics of karstic aquifers, 2005, Rahnemaei M. , Zare M. , Nematollahi A. R. , Sedghi H. ,
Bivariate time series techniques (in spectral domain) of daily rainfall and water level of piezometers or discharge of springs in karstic aquifers are employed to evaluate the lag times (delay) of aquifers response to rainfall events. The evaluation results show that the physical characteristics of karstic aquifers can be compared with each other by using the outcomes of these analyses. With attention to dual porosity idea of karstic aquifers, two lag times (t(1), t(2)) can be computed, which, are related to flow of water through larger fractures (conduit flow) and matrix of the rock (diffuse flow), respectively. Results obtained from these functions, correspond to the findings of physical characteristics, compiled from field investigations. Comparable to dual porosity idea in regard to recharge through the larger fractures (in the first step) and finer porosity of the rock (in the second step), the idea of 'Dual Recharge' in karstic aquifers is presented. Application of these techniques is verified using daily rainfall and water level of Qara, Sabzpooshan and Kaftarak piezometers and daily discharge of Qasreqhomsheh karst spring in Maharlu basin in Iran (52 degrees 20 '-52 degrees 40 ' E and 29 degrees 20 '-29 degrees 40 ' N) having different degree of karstification in their surroundings. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Non-stationary spatiotemporal analysis of karst water levels, 2005, Dryden Il, Markus L, Taylor Cc, Kovacs J,
We consider non-stationary spatiotemporal modelling in an investigation into karst water levels in western Hungary. A strong feature of the data set is the extraction of large amounts of water from mines, which caused the water levels to reduce until about 1990 when the mining ceased, and then the levels increased quickly. We discuss some traditional hydrogeological models which might be considered to be appropriate for this situation, and various alternative stochastic models. In particular, a separable space-time covariance model is proposed which is then deformed in time to account for the non-stationary nature of the lagged correlations between sites. Suitable covariance functions are investigated and then the models are fitted by using weighted least squares and cross-validation. Forecasting and prediction are carried out by using spatiotemporal kriging. We assess the performance of the method with one-step-ahead forecasting and make comparisons with naive estimators. We also consider spatiotemporal prediction at a set of new sites. The new model performs favourably compared with the deterministic model and the naive estimators, and the deformation by time shifting is worthwhile

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