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Abstract:
A numerical modelling approach has been developed to predict the vulnerability of aquifers to future climate change. This approach encompasses changes in recharge regime, dynamics of flow and storage patterns within aquifers, and natural hydrochemical changes. An application of the approach has been made to four hypothetical spring catchments representative of major carbonate aquifers in three European climatic zones. Since prolific carbonate aquifers typically combine a high transmissivity with a low specific yield, they can be expected to be more sensitive than clastic aquifers to changes in recharge patterns. Simulations of the study systems to the middle of the 21st century predict different outcomes in the three different climate zones: (1) in the northern maritime zone (UK) recharge (and therefore discharge) is predicted to increase by as much as 21 0n response to anticipated increases in precipitation; (2) in the continental zone (Germany) recharge in winter is predicted to remain approximately the same as at present, but summer recharge will decline dramatically (by as much as 32%), so that a net decrease in aquifer discharge is predicted; and (3) in the Mediterranean zone (Spain) recharge is predicted to decrease by as much as 160f the present-day values. For all three systems, increases in water hardness in response to rising CO2 are predicted, but are expected to be negligible in water resources terms